Elevator people also need to know: the next 10 years the real estate market will be like?
Publish: 2016-12-17 14:10:26
The next 10 years, in the existing residential basis, the total construction is likely to double. Including an increase in population, including an increase in per capita area.
Second-hand housing transactions in some cities have begun to slightly more than Yishoufang, 10 years later, the volume of second-hand housing transactions will be 4 times yishoufang. Then gradually developed, probably 6:1, second-hand housing transaction volume reached 60%. America's rush hour is up to 9:1.
So developers do not have anything to do?
No According to 2.5% conversion, is 2 billion, this figure and now the annual completion amount almost. Developers absolutely not without room for production, even if not in transition, the amount of new completion is still 1 billion. At that time, not to buy a large piece of land or construction in the wasteland, but a little like London, New York, Manhattan, is a building and then pulled out a one floor, the company a year is 10 to 200 thousand of the amount of construction.
If spread in all cities, the whole of New York is probably 200 thousand of the construction volume, less than 1/10 of new, and the transformation of the number of 1 million 800 thousand.
China faces a huge problem in the process of urban development.
China's urban government is the beginning of non market. Therefore, it uses land to exchange municipal infrastructure, such as Beijing. Fangzhuang, Wangjing, Lugu Shuangyushu, is the government's land into infrastructure, the bridge, road, sewage treatment plants are built by developers, rather than government.
The State Council issued 55 orders, the land can be sold later, began a non-public economy into the land market. Thus, the use of the old city and Metro combined land acquisition methods to transform the old city, which became an important means of local government to convert municipal infrastructure.
However, in New York, Paris, London, their old city transformation and metro construction is completely disconnected. Because the land is private, so around the city to expand the building, the size of the city to increase, are outsiders into the surrounding, few rich people directly into the city center. In the epitaxial construction almost, then back to the city center, the transformation of the old city.
The advantage is that the price of the old city and Metro prices cut off. Metro Construction of housing prices did not grow rapidly, in the transformation of the old city, the price of the Metro rose, the price difference between the two found a relative balance.
The Chinese government is put together the old city and the new city, the old city demolition give you 6000 dollars, Metro house away from the urban area, but also to sell 6000. Because they know that you can get 6000 dollars to buy a new house. Thus, disrupted the price system, which is caused by non market factors.
In the future development process, the transformation of the old city faces several problems.
First, many of the old city is no land years. If who can, with high prices now, or a little higher than the market price of the price of the land who have no house to buy time, including the government, the public and the public all all all factories and mines. Because it will be transformed in the future.
The most typical transformation in Shenzhen shekou. Chinese Shekou is the first reform, the first is the introduction of low level processing, "three", two outside, there are a large number of garment factory, the garment factory basically removed. They called "cage for birds", in fact, the form of the transformation of the old city, the backward processing into high-grade office and residential.
Because the region does not need migrant workers, and the need for urban masters, so this transformation began to enter. Shenzhen as a typical, can be used as a case, that is, the future of urban development, may be similar to the form of Shenzhen.
This mode of transformation of the old city, in ten years, may become mainstream. New levy a land to build Metro model may be less and less.
Why these ten years still have the opportunity?
Because we need a lot of urbanization. Central financial leading group mentioned in particular to build 10 or similar cities like Beijing, at least have 16. Expected these 10 years, there are a lot of new.
The next 10 years, real estate may still become China's main pillar of the economy. In a period of time, but also rely on real estate to stimulate China's economy and the realization of China's urbanization.
Second-hand housing transactions in some cities have begun to slightly more than Yishoufang, 10 years later, the volume of second-hand housing transactions will be 4 times yishoufang. Then gradually developed, probably 6:1, second-hand housing transaction volume reached 60%. America's rush hour is up to 9:1.
So developers do not have anything to do?
No According to 2.5% conversion, is 2 billion, this figure and now the annual completion amount almost. Developers absolutely not without room for production, even if not in transition, the amount of new completion is still 1 billion. At that time, not to buy a large piece of land or construction in the wasteland, but a little like London, New York, Manhattan, is a building and then pulled out a one floor, the company a year is 10 to 200 thousand of the amount of construction.
If spread in all cities, the whole of New York is probably 200 thousand of the construction volume, less than 1/10 of new, and the transformation of the number of 1 million 800 thousand.
China faces a huge problem in the process of urban development.
China's urban government is the beginning of non market. Therefore, it uses land to exchange municipal infrastructure, such as Beijing. Fangzhuang, Wangjing, Lugu Shuangyushu, is the government's land into infrastructure, the bridge, road, sewage treatment plants are built by developers, rather than government.
The State Council issued 55 orders, the land can be sold later, began a non-public economy into the land market. Thus, the use of the old city and Metro combined land acquisition methods to transform the old city, which became an important means of local government to convert municipal infrastructure.
However, in New York, Paris, London, their old city transformation and metro construction is completely disconnected. Because the land is private, so around the city to expand the building, the size of the city to increase, are outsiders into the surrounding, few rich people directly into the city center. In the epitaxial construction almost, then back to the city center, the transformation of the old city.
The advantage is that the price of the old city and Metro prices cut off. Metro Construction of housing prices did not grow rapidly, in the transformation of the old city, the price of the Metro rose, the price difference between the two found a relative balance.
The Chinese government is put together the old city and the new city, the old city demolition give you 6000 dollars, Metro house away from the urban area, but also to sell 6000. Because they know that you can get 6000 dollars to buy a new house. Thus, disrupted the price system, which is caused by non market factors.
In the future development process, the transformation of the old city faces several problems.
First, many of the old city is no land years. If who can, with high prices now, or a little higher than the market price of the price of the land who have no house to buy time, including the government, the public and the public all all all factories and mines. Because it will be transformed in the future.
The most typical transformation in Shenzhen shekou. Chinese Shekou is the first reform, the first is the introduction of low level processing, "three", two outside, there are a large number of garment factory, the garment factory basically removed. They called "cage for birds", in fact, the form of the transformation of the old city, the backward processing into high-grade office and residential.
Because the region does not need migrant workers, and the need for urban masters, so this transformation began to enter. Shenzhen as a typical, can be used as a case, that is, the future of urban development, may be similar to the form of Shenzhen.
This mode of transformation of the old city, in ten years, may become mainstream. New levy a land to build Metro model may be less and less.
Why these ten years still have the opportunity?
Because we need a lot of urbanization. Central financial leading group mentioned in particular to build 10 or similar cities like Beijing, at least have 16. Expected these 10 years, there are a lot of new.
The next 10 years, real estate may still become China's main pillar of the economy. In a period of time, but also rely on real estate to stimulate China's economy and the realization of China's urbanization.
